What a year of pandemic tells us about European healthcare systems
Mainly three things: the number of doctors and nurses and the population density of a region are more important indicators than the number of ICUs in predicting Covid-19 deaths, there does not appear to be a causal association between per-capita numbers of ICUs and deaths from Covid, and excess mortality showed a correlation with the "pandemic waves".
What a year of pandemic tells us about European healthcare systems
Mainly three things: the number of doctors and nurses and the population density of a region are more important indicators than the number of ICUs in predicting Covid-19 deaths, there does not appear to be a causal association between per-capita numbers of ICUs and deaths from Covid, and excess mortality showed a correlation with the “pandemic waves”.
On April 1, 2021, Greece was the sixth “best-performing” country in Europe in terms of the total number of confirmed deaths from Covid-19, counting 783 deaths per million inhabitants since the beginning of the pandemic (according to ourworldindata.org ). The safest places to survive the coronavirus in the year of the pandemic in Europe seem to have been at the two extremes: in the North (Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, although not Sweden, which followed a different model) and in the South (Cyprus and initially Greece). This is not a snapshot, but rather a general picture that applies to the average death rates in all three phases of the pandemic so far. In reality, the situation is much more complex, as the phenomenon is evolving dynamically.
The number of coronavirus deaths per capita in a country is a function of variables that are too difficult to define and accurately quantify to give safe conclusions. These variables include virus spread, degree of initial preparedness and subsequent strengthening of national health systems, response measures, population and geographical data (e.g. population distribution), behavioural trends, and evolution of the vaccination programme.
An overview of Covid-19 deaths is not sufficient to draw firm conclusions. Other epidemiological indicators are needed. “Excess mortality”, i.e. deaths from all causes in the coronavirus era which exceeded the average over a five-year reference period (2015-2019), skyrocketed in the majority of European countries. According to Eurostat data, in total, by November 2020, 450,000 more deaths were recorded in the EU than in the same reference period previously . The European platform EUROMOMO , which monitors mortality from any cause in the 27 EU member states, has recorded a relatively small increase in excess mortality in Greece in recent weeks.
Not all countries have been affected in the same way by non-Covid-19 deaths. In Greece, in the first ten months of 2020 excess mortality was close to or below the average of the last five years. But the situation started to change dramatically in November and December (when the second wave peaked). Then, in the first two months of 2021, there was an initial decline in “excess deaths” from all causes.
In Greece, 8,802 more