Leftists, eurosceptics, and christian democrats are losing support in Europe

Polls from across the European Union show declining support for the parties belonging to GUE/NGL, EFDD, and EPP groups in the European Parliament in the past two months.

European United Left-Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) is the group that seems to be taking the biggest hit. It is down by 0.7 points to 7.5 percent. Here are some of the national parties belonging to GUE/NGL that are particularly losing ground:

  • Podemos (Spain): -3.7 points to 12.4 percent
  • Levica (Slovenia): -1.2 points to 8.5 percent
  • La France insoumise (France): -1.2 points to 8.6 percent

Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) and the European People's Party (EPP) are also down in the latest polls by 0.7 and 0.2 points.

The EP group with the biggest increase across the continent is the social democratic S&D. The national parties of this group are collectively up by 0.4 points. These are the national parties of S&D that have made the largest gains:

  • Partido Socialista Obrero Español – PSOE (Spain): +3 points to 26.8 percent
  • Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD (Germany): +1.9 points to 17.0 percent
  • Socialdemokraterne (Denmark): +1.4 points to 27.2 percent

Parties that are currently not in the European Parliament and are yet to choose an EP group, are also gaining support, now sitting at 8.1 percent across the union.

Polling support for EU parliament groups at the end of February

EP group Support 2-month change
ALDE 14.5% +0.1 points
ECR 8.1% 0 points
EFDD 5.2% -0.7 points
ENF 8.3% +0.2 points
EPP 22.7% -0.2 points
GUE/NGL 7.5% -0.7 points
Greens/EFA 6.7% +0.1 points
S&D 17.7% +0.4 points
non-affiliated 1.1% 0 points
new or uncategorized 8.1% +1.1 points

One of the big trends observers expect to see in the 2019 elections is the rise of populist, nationalist and eurosceptic parties. The three EP groups that can be said to partly or completely fall under this umbrella (ENF, EFDD and ECR) currently poll at 21.7 percent, compared to 9.5 percent in the previous election. Note that Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) was launched in 2015.

Results in 2014 European elections

EP group Vote share in 2014
ALDE 9.3%
ECR 6.4%
EFDD 3.1%
EPP 28.4%
GUE/NGL 7.4%
Greens/EFA 6.4%
S&D 22.5%
non-affiliated 6.4%

The vote shares for the 2014 European elections have to be taken with a grain of salt however: they are computed as a weighted mean of the vote shares of each EP group in every country. Each country is weighted according to the number of seats in the European Parliament. In some cases the elected members of a coalition of parties are split into multiple EP groups. In Ireland for example the Independents joined three different parliament groups. In those rare cases we assume each EP group to have received a third of the votes, as the official results do not include a detailed breakdown. The numbers don't add up to 100 percent as the votes of non elected parties are not presented.

About this analysis

This report is based on data collected and aggregated by the Poll of Polls . The Poll of Polls is an aggregator of polls from across Europe, affiliated with POLITICO Europe . It uses statistical models to compute trend lines for national parties in all EU countries based on local polls. The trend line represent the current likely support of each party.

Except for France, we analysed polls on the national parliament support rather than those specifically referring to the European elections. National parliament polls are typically conducted more frequently, which we prioritize as we focus on short term trends in this report. We aggregated the level of national support for each party to a weighted European mean of each EP group. Each party is weighted based on the number of seats that the country holds in the European Parliament.

It is worth noting that we do not know for sure what EP groups the national parties will join (if they get any seats). We sticked to the categorization made by the Poll of Polls:

  • the parties that are currently represented in the European Parliament are assumed to remain in their current groups
  • the parties that are not in the European Parliament, but have been before, are assumed to return to their previous groups
  • parties that were founded after the previous elections in 2014 are categorised as “new” until there is news or an official statement regarding their affiliation.

This categorization is done manually and may not be fully comprehensive. Get the original data here.

Wednesday 13 March 2019

Source/s:

Newsworthy

Data source: Poll of Polls

Data elaborations: data aggregation, calculation of weighted means and differences

Data released in: 2019

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