Christian democrats, greens, and social democrats gain support in polls in Europe

Polls from across the EU show increasing support for the parties in the the christian democrat EPP, the Greens/EFA, and the social democratic S&D groups of the European Parliament in the past two months. In Austria greens are down by 1.2 points.

Photo: POLITICO

This analysis is based on 269 polls conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2019. The polls have been gathered and aggregated by POLITICO. More about the methodology below.

European People's Party (EPP) is the group that seems to be making the largest gain. It is up by 0.7 points to 21.0 percent. Here are some of the national parties belonging to EPP that are particularly gaining ground:

  • Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union & KDNP (Hungary): +3.6 points to 54.4 percent
  • Christian Democratic Appeal (Netherlands): +2.8 points to 13.9 percent
  • National Liberal Party (Romania): +2.1 points to 26.2 percent

Greens-European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) and Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D;) are also up in the latest polls by 0.4 and 0.3 points.

The EP group with the biggest decrease across the continent is the liberal ALDE, down by 0.4 points. These are the national parties of ALDE that have made the largest losses:

  • Estonian Centre Party (Estonia): -5.0 points to 20.0 percent
  • Estonian Reform Party (Estonia): -3.1 points to 23.8 percent
  • Marjan Šarec List (Slovenia): -2.3 points to 16.6 percent

POLLING SUPPORT FOR EU PARLIAMENT GROUPS AT THE END OF APRIL

EP group Support 2-month change
ALDE 13.6% -0.4 points
ECR 7.8% +0.1 points
EPP 21.0% +0.7 points
GUE/NGL 7.8% -0.1 points
Greens/EFA 7.1% +0.4 points
M5S 3.0% -0.1 points
New or uncategorized 11.5% -0.1 points
S&D; 17.7% +0.3 points
Salvini's Alliance 9.8% 0.0 points

Theses numbers are based on the weighted average of the polling support for each parliament group in each member state. The countries are weighted by their seat share in the new parliament. The mapping of national parties to EP groups is done by POLITICO.

Source: Politico

One of the big trends we expect to see in the 2019 elections is the rise of populist, nationalist and eurosceptic parties. The newly established European Alliance of Peoples and Nations, led by Matteo Salvini, and the conservative and eurosceptic ECR currently poll at 17.6 percent.

As the composition of parliament groups have changed since the previous election polling levels are not fully comparable to the results from 2014.

RESULTS IN 2014 EP ELECTION

EP group Vote share 2014
ALDE 9.3%
ECR 6.4%
EPP 28.4%
GUE/NGL 7.4%
Greens/EFA 6.4%
S&D; 22.5%

The vote shares for the 2014 EU Parliament election have to be taken with a grain of salt. They are computed as a weighted mean of the vote shares of each parliament group in every country. Each country is weighted according to the number of seats in the parliament. In some cases the elected members of a coalition of parties are split into multiple EP groups. In Ireland for example the Independents joined three different parliament groups. In those rare cases we assume each parliament group to have received a third of the votes, as the official results don't include a detailed breakdown.

The numbers don't add up to 100 percent as the votes of non elected parties are not presente. 

About this analysis

This report is based on data collected and aggregated by the Poll of Polls . The Poll of Polls is an aggregator of polls from across Europe, affiliated with POLITICO Europe . It uses statistical models to compute trend lines for national parties in all EU countries based on local polls. The trend line represent the current likely support of each party.

Except for France, we analysed polls on the national parliament support rather than those specifically referring to the European elections. National parliament polls are typically conducted more frequently, which we prioritize as we focus on short term trends in this report. We aggregated the level of national support for each party to a weighted European mean of each EP group. Each party is weighted based on the number of seats that the country holds in the European Parliament.

It is worth noting that we do not know for sure what EP groups the national parties will join (if they get any seats). We sticked to the categorization made by the Poll of Polls:

  • the parties that are currently represented in the European Parliament are assumed to remain in their current groups
  • the parties that are not in the European Parliament, but have been before, are assumed to return to their previous groups
  • parties that were founded after the previous elections in 2014 are categorised as “new” until there is news or an official statement regarding their affiliation.

This categorization is done manually and may not be fully comprehensive. Get the original data here.