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According to an analysis run through the Stats Monitor, based on data by POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, over the past two months the European People's Party has slightly been gaining ground, growing on the whole by 0.7 per cent across the European Union.
The EPP would thus consolidate the relative majority it holds at the European Parliament, confirming itself as the EU’s first political family with around 24 per cent of the votes. S&D (18.3 per cent) and Renew Europe (13.8 per cent) place themselves in the second and third place, with their consensus falling respectively by 0.9 per cent and 0.7 per cent across the EU during the last two months. Eurosceptic ID (10.6 per cent), conservative ECR (9.3 per cent), the Greens (8.2 per cent), and the united left (7.1 per cent) have remained more or less stable.
While variations are minimal on the continental scale, they are affected by more relevant changes concerning individual national parties. If we look at them, we can notice that parties that were involved in the last weeks in the political elections held in Austria, Poland, Portugal, and Spain are among those who suffer the greatest fluctuations in the polls.
In Austria, the winner Austrian People’s Party grew over the past 60 days by almost three percentage points, while the collapse of the nationalist FPÖ continues (-4.4 per cent). The Portuguese Social Democratic Party (+4.8 per cent) is also gaining support, despite having been defeated by the socialists just over a month ago. Following the triumph of October 13, Polish Law and Justice Party fell slightly (-2.4 per cent). Vox, the biggest winner of Spanish elections, witnessed a leap forward by 3.6 per cent in the polls, at the expenses of moderate Ciudadanos (-4.0 per cent).
Election campaigns, last-minute scandals, kept promises or disregarded ones, are just some of the factors revolving around election day. Looming elections are therefore a key element in prompting fluctuations of parties in polls both at the national and European level.